McS-Net: Multi-class Siamese network for severity of COVID-19 infection classification from lung CT scan slices.

Worldwide COVID-19 is a highly infectious and rapidly spreading disease in almost all age groups. The Computed Tomography (CT) scans of lungs are found to be accurate for the timely diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. In the proposed work, a deep learning-based P-shot N-ways Siamese network along with prototypical nearest neighbor classifiers is implemented for the classification of COVID-19 infection from lung CT scan slices. For this, a Siamese network with an identical sub-network (weight sharing) is used for image classification with a limited dataset for each class. The feature vectors are obtained from the pre-trained sub-networks having weight sharing. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated on the benchmark MosMed dataset having categories zero (healthy control) and numerous COVID-19 infections. The proposed methodology is evaluated on (a) chest CT scans provided by medical hospitals in Moscow, Russia for 1110 patients, and (b) case study of low-dose CT scans of 42 patients provided by Avtaran healthcare in India. The deep learning-based Siamese network (15-shot 5-ways) obtained an accuracy of 98.07%, the sensitivity of 95.66%, specificity of 98.83%, and F1-score of 95.10%. The proposed work outperforms the COVID-19 infection severity classification with limited scans availability for numerous infection categories.

All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing.

The conversion rate between asymptomatic infections and reported/unreported symptomatic infections is a very sensitive parameter for model variables that spread COVID-19. This is important information for follow-up use in screening, prediction, prognostics, contact tracing, and drug development for the COVID-19 pandemic. The model described here suggests that there may not be enough researchers to solve all of these problems thoroughly and effectively, and it requires careful selection of what we are doing and rapid sharing of results and models and optimizing modeling simulations with value to reduce the impact of COVID-19. Exploring simulation modeling will help decision makers make the most informed decisions. In order to fight against the "Delta" virus, the establishment of a line of defense through all-people testing (APT) is not only an effective method summarized from past experience but also one of the best means to effectively cut the chain of epidemic transmission. The effect of large-scale testing has been fully verified in the international community. We developed a practical dynamic infectious disease model-SETPG (A + I) RD + APT by considering the effects of the all-people test (APT). The model is useful for studying effects of screening measures and providing a more realistic modelling with all-people-test strategies, which require everybody in a population to be tested for infection. In prior work, a total of 370 epidemic cases were collected. We collected three kinds of known cases: the cumulative number of daily incidences, daily cumulative recovery, and daily cumulative deaths in Hong Kong and the United States between 22 January 2020 and 13 November 2020 were simulated. In two essential strategies of the integrated SETPG (A + I) RD + APT model, comparing the cumulative number of screenings in derivative experiments based on daily detection capability and tracking system application rate, we evaluated the performance of the timespan required for the basic regeneration number (R0) and real-time regeneration number (R0t) to reach 1; the optimal policy of each experiment is available, and the screening effect is evaluated by screening performance indicators. with the binary encoding screening method, the number of screenings for the target population is 8667 in HK and 1,803,400 in the U.S., including 6067 asymptomatic cases in HK and 1,262,380 in the U.S. as well as 2599 cases of mild symptoms in HK and 541,020 in the U.S.; there were also 8.25 days of screening timespan in HK and 9.25 days of screening timespan required in the U.S. and a daily detectability of 625,000 cases in HK and 6,050,000 cases in the U.S. Using precise tracking technology, number of screenings for the target population is 6060 cases in HK and 1,766,420 cases in the U.S., including 4242 asymptomatic cases in HK and 1,236,494 cases in the U.S. as well as 1818 cases of mild symptoms in HK and 529,926 cases in the U.S. Total screening timespan (TS) is 8.25~9.25 days. According to the proposed infectious dynamics model that adapts to the all-people test, all of the epidemic cases were reported for fitting, and the result seemed more reasonable, and epidemic prediction became more accurate. It adapted to densely populated metropolises for APT on prevention.

Deep transfer learning-based automated detection of COVID-19 from lung CT scan slices.

Lung abnormality is one of the common diseases in humans of all age group and this disease may arise due to various reasons. Recently, the lung infection due to SARS-CoV-2 has affected a larger human community globally, and due to its rapidity, the World-Health-Organisation (WHO) declared it as pandemic disease. The COVID-19 disease has adverse effects on the respiratory system, and the infection severity can be detected using a chosen imaging modality. In the proposed research work; the COVID-19 is detected using transfer learning from CT scan images decomposed to three-level using stationary wavelet. A three-phase detection model is proposed to improve the detection accuracy and the procedures are as follows; Phase1- data augmentation using stationary wavelets, Phase2- COVID-19 detection using pre-trained CNN model and Phase3- abnormality localization in CT scan images. This work has considered the well known pre-trained architectures, such as ResNet18, ResNet50, ResNet101, and SqueezeNet for the experimental evaluation. In this work, 70% of images are considered to train the network and 30% images are considered to validate the network. The performance of the considered architectures is evaluated by computing the common performance measures. The result of the experimental evaluation confirms that the ResNet18 pre-trained transfer learning-based model offered better classification accuracy (training = 99.82%, validation = 97.32%, and testing = 99.4%) on the considered image dataset compared with the alternatives.

Transfer learning-based ensemble support vector machine model for automated COVID-19 detection using lung computerized tomography scan data.

The novel discovered disease coronavirus popularly known as COVID-19 is caused due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). An early-stage detection of COVID-19 is crucial for the containment of the pandemic it has caused. In this study, a transfer learning-based COVID-19 screening technique is proposed. The motivation of this study is to design an automated system that can assist medical staff especially in areas where trained staff are outnumbered. The study investigates the potential of transfer learning-based models for automatically diagnosing diseases like COVID-19 to assist the medical force, especially in times of an outbreak. In the proposed work, a deep learning model, i.e., truncated VGG16 (Visual Geometry Group from Oxford) is implemented to screen COVID-19 CT scans. The VGG16 architecture is fine-tuned and used to extract features from CT scan images. Further principal component analysis (PCA) is used for feature selection. For the final classification, four different classifiers, namely deep convolutional neural network (DCNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), online sequential ELM, and bagging ensemble with support vector machine (SVM) are compared. The best performing classifier bagging ensemble with SVM within 385 ms achieved an accuracy of 95.7%, the precision of 95.8%, area under curve (AUC) of 0.958, and an F1 score of 95.3% on 208 test images. The results obtained on diverse datasets prove the superiority and robustness of the proposed work. A pre-processing technique has also been proposed for radiological data. The study further compares pre-trained CNN architectures and classification models against the proposed technique.

A new SEAIRD pandemic prediction model with clinical and epidemiological data analysis on COVID-19 outbreak.

Measuring the spread of disease during a pandemic is critically important for accurately and promptly applying various lockdown strategies, so to prevent the collapse of the medical system. The latest pandemic of COVID-19 that hits the world death tolls and economy loss very hard, is more complex and contagious than its precedent diseases. The complexity comes mostly from the emergence of asymptomatic patients and relapse of the recovered patients which were not commonly seen during SARS outbreaks. These new characteristics pertaining to COVID-19 were only discovered lately, adding a level of uncertainty to the traditional SEIR models. The contribution of this paper is that for the COVID-19 epidemic, which is infectious in both the incubation period and the onset period, we use neural networks to learn from the actual data of the epidemic to obtain optimal parameters, thereby establishing a nonlinear, self-adaptive dynamic coefficient infectious disease prediction model. On the basis of prediction, we considered control measures and simulated the effects of different control measures and different strengths of the control measures. The epidemic control is predicted as a continuous change process, and the epidemic development and control are integrated to simulate and forecast. Decision-making departments make optimal choices. The improved model is applied to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States, and by comparing the prediction results with the traditional SEIR model, SEAIRD model and adaptive SEAIRD model, it is found that the adaptive SEAIRD model's prediction results of the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic data are in good agreement with the actual epidemic curve. For example, from the prediction effect of these 3 different models on accumulative confirmed cases, in terms of goodness of fit, adaptive SEAIRD model (0.99997) ≈ SEAIRD model (0.98548) > Classical SEIR model (0.66837); in terms of error value: adaptive SEAIRD model (198.6563) < < SEAIRD model(4739.8577) < < Classical SEIR model (22,652.796); The objective of this contribution is mainly on extending the current spread prediction model. It incorporates extra compartments accounting for the new features of COVID-19, and fine-tunes the new model with neural network, in a bid of achieving a higher level of prediction accuracy. Based on the SEIR model of disease transmission, an adaptive model called SEAIRD with internal source and isolation intervention is proposed. It simulates the effects of the changing behaviour of the SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. Neural network is applied to achieve a better fit in SEAIRD. Unlike the SEIR model, the adaptive SEAIRD model embraces multi-group dynamics which lead to different evolutionary trends during the epidemic. Through the risk assessment indicators of the adaptive SEAIRD model, it is convenient to measure the severity of the epidemic situation for consideration of different preventive measures. Future scenarios are projected from the trends of various indicators by running the adaptive SEAIRD model.

AI-Enabled Technologies that Fight the Coronavirus Outbreak

Development of innovative designs, new applications, new technologies and heavier investment in AI are continued to be seen every day. However, with the sudden impact of COVID19, so severe and urgent around the world, adoption of AI is propelled to an unprecedent level, because it helps to fight the virus pandemic by enabling one or more of the following possibilities: (1) autonomous everything, (2) pervasive knowledge, (3) assistive technology and (4) rational decision support.

An Introduction to COVID-19

A novel coronavirus (CoV) named ‘2019-nCoV’ or ‘2019 novel coronavirus’ or ‘COVID-19’ by the World Health Organization (WHO) is in charge of the current outbreak of pneumonia that began at the beginning of December 2019 near in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1–4]. COVID-19 is a pathogenic virus. From the phylogenetic analysis carried out with obtainable full genome sequences, bats occur to be the COVID-19 virus reservoir, but the intermediate host(s) has not been detected till now.

Social Group Optimization-Assisted Kapur's Entropy and Morphological Segmentation for Automated Detection of COVID-19 Infection from Computed Tomography Images.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has been declared a global pandemic. Due to its infection rate and severity, it has emerged as one of the major global threats of the current generation. To support the current combat against the disease, this research aims to propose a machine learning-based pipeline to detect COVID-19 infection using lung computed tomography scan images (CTI). This implemented pipeline consists of a number of sub-procedures ranging from segmenting the COVID-19 infection to classifying the segmented regions. The initial part of the pipeline implements the segmentation of the COVID-19-affected CTI using social group optimization-based Kapur's entropy thresholding, followed by k-means clustering and morphology-based segmentation. The next part of the pipeline implements feature extraction, selection, and fusion to classify the infection. Principle component analysis-based serial fusion technique is used in fusing the features and the fused feature vector is then employed to train, test, and validate four different classifiers namely Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function, and Decision Tree. Experimental results using benchmark datasets show a high accuracy (> 91%) for the morphology-based segmentation task; for the classification task, the KNN offers the highest accuracy among the compared classifiers (> 87%). However, this should be noted that this method still awaits clinical validation, and therefore should not be used to clinically diagnose ongoing COVID-19 infection.

Forecasting Models for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Survey of the State-of-the-Art.

COVID-19 is a pandemic that has affected over 170 countries around the world. The number of infected and deceased patients has been increasing at an alarming rate in almost all the affected nations. Forecasting techniques can be inculcated thereby assisting in designing better strategies and in taking productive decisions. These techniques assess the situations of the past thereby enabling better predictions about the situation to occur in the future. These predictions might help to prepare against possible threats and consequences. Forecasting techniques play a very important role in yielding accurate predictions. This study categorizes forecasting techniques into two types, namely, stochastic theory mathematical models and data science/machine learning techniques. Data collected from various platforms also play a vital role in forecasting. In this study, two categories of datasets have been discussed, i.e., big data accessed from World Health Organization/National databases and data from a social media communication. Forecasting of a pandemic can be done based on various parameters such as the impact of environmental factors, incubation period, the impact of quarantine, age, gender and many more. These techniques and parameters used for forecasting are extensively studied in this work. However, forecasting techniques come with their own set of challenges (technical and generic). This study discusses these challenges and also provides a set of recommendations for the people who are currently fighting the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Composite Monte Carlo decision making under high uncertainty of novel coronavirus epidemic using hybridized deep learning and fuzzy rule induction.

In the advent of the novel coronavirus epidemic since December 2019, governments and authorities have been struggling to make critical decisions under high uncertainty at their best efforts. In computer science, this represents a typical problem of machine learning over incomplete or limited data in early epidemic Composite Monte-Carlo (CMC) simulation is a forecasting method which extrapolates available data which are broken down from multiple correlated/casual micro-data sources into many possible future outcomes by drawing random samples from some probability distributions. For instance, the overall trend and propagation of the infested cases in China are influenced by the temporal-spatial data of the nearby cities around the Wuhan city (where the virus is originated from), in terms of the population density, travel mobility, medical resources such as hospital beds and the timeliness of quarantine control in each city etc. Hence a CMC is reliable only up to the closeness of the underlying statistical distribution of a CMC, that is supposed to represent the behaviour of the future events, and the correctness of the composite data relationships. In this paper, a case study of using CMC that is enhanced by deep learning network and fuzzy rule induction for gaining better stochastic insights about the epidemic development is experimented. Instead of applying simplistic and uniform assumptions for a MC which is a common practice, a deep learning-based CMC is used in conjunction of fuzzy rule induction techniques. As a result, decision makers are benefited from a better fitted MC outputs complemented by min-max rules that foretell about the extreme ranges of future possibilities with respect to the epidemic.